Three dominant trends that are determining its growth and direction in the twenty-first century are:
- The blurring of the line between cars and trucks as truck-like vehicles become increasingly popular
- The drive to make vehicles more environmentally friendly by cleaning their emissions, making them more recyclable and lighter, and eliminating their consumption of non-renewable resources
- The desire to make vehicles as safe as possible by improving their crash avoidance capabilities, crash worthiness, and occupant protection
Within each of these trends, the driving force is the continuing application of advanced technologies, notably the continuing increase of mobile and in-vehicle electronics, expected to rise to $9.6 billion in 2007, an increase of more than 11 percent; automotive-grade semiconductors,experiencing year-on-year growth of 10 percent, reaching $18 billion in 2007; and automotive telematics and navigation, also expected to have strong growth in several world regions, generating about $38.3 billion in revenues by 2011.
As noted, truck production in the United States significantly exceeds car production, the only market in the world where this situation exists. In every other market, truck production is only a fraction of the number of cars built. In Europe, for example, more than six times as many cars as trucks are built. Car and truck sales reflect this same preference. The sale of light trucks to the motoring public has always been strong in North America but is getting ever stronger as more than half the vehicles sold in this market have been light trucks since early in the twenty-first century. This clearly illustrates Americans preference for pickup trucks, SUVs, minivans and van conversions, a trend that is showing signs of taking hold in other markets of the world.
This demand for vehicles that incorporate the comfort and performance of the automobile with the utilitarian benefits of a truck has created a new type of vehicle built from the ground up as a cross between car and truck with unibody construction, relatively high seating positions, two-, four- or all-wheel drive, and capability of carrying up to eight passengers plus reasonable cargo space-the only missing ingredient is an ability to go off-road. This new breed of personal transportation vehicles are known generically as crossovers-built on car chassis with car-like suspension systems and powertrains, yet with the ruggedness, storage and utilitarian features of SUVs, vans and pickup trucks. The new breed of downsized SUVs mentioned earlier is an example of this trend.
The suburban vehicles of the 1920s and 1930s were the forerunners of this movement, especially as embodied in the early Chevrolet and GMC Suburban models. The modern crossover emerged late in the twentieth century, experiencing quick acceptance among the motoring public in the United States, growing 62 percent from 1999 to 2003 and predicted to continue at a 10 percent rate into the future, according to some forecasters. Among the early competitors in this rapidly growing market were the Acura MC, BMW X5X, Buick Rendezvous, Cadillac SRX, Chrysler Pacifica and PT Cruiser, Chevrolet HHR, Ford Freestyle, GMC Acadia, Honda Pilot and CRV, Infinity FX35, Lexus RX330, Mitsubishi Endeavor, Nissan Murano, Toyota Highlander, VW Touareg, and Volvo XC90.
Although the development of the internal combustion engine was a critical factor in the evolution of the automobile into a commercially viable product, it also sowed the seeds of the major problems associated with the automobile in the late twentieth and early twenty-first centuries: pollution, consumption of a finite resource and, perhaps even more significantly, political issues associated with dependence on imported oil, much of which had to be purchased from unfriendly or unstable foreign governments. These political concerns were especially prevalent in Europe, North America, and Japan, the largest automotive markets in the world.
The diesel engine was invented in the late 1880s by Rudolph Diesel, a German looking for an alternative to steam power. He developed an internal combustion engine based on compression ignition principles capable of running on biomass fuel-peanut oil in initial demonstrations. Early diesels were too large and heavy for use in vehicles and it was not until the 1920s when smaller, lighter versions were introduced for lorries in Europe. Mercedes began using diesels in cars in 1936 and such use in cars has grown ever since. By the early twenty-first century, for example, Europeans were buying diesel-powered cars 35 percent of the time-45 percent if you include light trucks.
The only time drivers in the United States purchased diesel powered cars in any significant number was during the OPEC oil embargo during the nineteen seventies and then only in limited numbers. But advances in diesel engine technology have largely corrected the problems that kept American motorists away. According to the Diesel Technology Forum in a 2005 report, “advanced clean diesel technology offers American consumers a fuel-sipping alternative that does not sacrifice power or performance.” Annual registrations of diesel-powered passenger cars in the United States increased 80 percent from 2000 to 2005, growing from 301,000 to nearly 550,000 vehicles, a trend that is expected to continue with diesel sales approximately tripling in the next 10 years, accounting for more than 10 percent of U.S. vehicle sales by 2015. Vehicles with hybrid powertrains using some combination of an electric motor with a gasoline or diesel engine have been gaining popularity since 1997 when they became commercially available with the introduction in the Japanese market of the Toyota Prius and when Audi began volume production of the A4 Avant-based Duo in Europe (The Duo, which mated a gasoline engine with an electric motor, was not commercially successful so European automakers focused their efforts on advanced diesels). The first hybrid car to be sold on the mass market in the United States was the two-door Honda Insight, introduced in 1999, followed in 2000 with the importation of the Toyota Prius, the first hybrid four-door sedan to enter the U.S. market. Subsequently, Honda introduced a hybrid version of the Civic in 2002 and Toyota released the Prius II in 2004, the same year Ford introduced the Escape Hybrid, the first American-built commercially available hybrid and the first SUV hybrid, according to the “History of Hybrid Vehicles” from HybridCars.com. By 2005 hybrid auto sales had reached approximately 212,000 vehicles, 1.3 percent of all light vehicle sales, according to ConsumerAffairs.com, By 2012 hybrid sales were forecast to reach 780,000 vehicles, or 4.2 percent market share, according to that report. The long-term trend toward more environmentally friendly powertrains is expected to lead to fuel cells. General Motors developed the first operational fuel cellpowered vehicle in 1968 but it wasn't until the 1990s that growing environmental and energy use concerns prompted increased industry and government investment in fuel cell research. By the end of that decade, Daimler Chrysler introduced NECAR IV, the first hydrogen fuel cellpowered commercial automobile, according to the World Fuel Cell Council. General Motors also introduced a drivable fuel cell concept, an Opel Zafira minivan, at the Paris Motor Show.
The twenty-first century could see the fuel cell emerging as a major player in automotive powertrains. “Light-duty automotive applications are by far the largest market opportunity available to fuel cell technology,” reports the World Fuel Cell Council, “and have been the focus of intense development effort. All major automakers now have fuel cell vehicle programs. Most have either launched prototype cars or announced their intention to do so.” Ford, for example, in early 2007 showcased a fuel cell-powered version of its Edge crossover (an SUV built on an automobile platform).
Weight reduction in order to improve fuel economy is the other environmental improvement target. Steel and cast iron have traditionally represented about two-thirds of the total weight of a typical car, weight reduction research has concentrated on lightweight steels, other lightweight metals such as aluminum and magnesium, plastics, carbon fiber, ceramics and other exotic materials. Vehicle safety, which became a paramount issue following the 1965 publication of Ralph Nader's Unsafe At Any Speed, has focused on five areas: crash avoidance, pre-crash preparation, occupant protection, post crash measures, and security. Crash avoidance improvements are technical advances in systems that enhance a driver's ability to maintain control of the vehicle despite adverse driving conditions. These have included blind-spot detection systems, tire-pressure monitors, and enhanced vehicle suspension systems, including electronic stability control systems that use sensors to anticipate impending loss of control by the driver and electronically control brakes, throttle, and steering to help the driver guide the vehicle out of danger.
