How Obama Beat Hillary: The Upset of the Century

I ran a column the last three Wednesdays on whether Hillary was finished in the race for the Democratic nomination for President against Barack Obama. On my last column, we decided that she was finished, finally. Now it is time to dissect how this upset happened. It is a truly historic upset where a first term Senator defeated the first serious woman candidate, wife of the last Democrat president. I see six key areas which made this upset possible looking back on the last year and a half.

1. Change. This was the year of change. Any year with a lame duck president such as 2008 is going to lead to the desire for change. But this year, moreso. Obama's campaign signs stress CHANGE in bigger letters than they show his own name. Obama capitalized on the public's desire for change early and often. Of course, the first woman president would have been huge change. But her last name was Clinton. Edwards ran last time. So did Kucnich. Biden ran 20 years ago and he was a plagiarist. Dodd is an old guy who has been in the Senate for over 25 years. Gravel was voted out of the Senate the year Dodd was elected. This opened the change opportunity for Obama. The electorate had no idea what they wanted except change and Obama was ready to offer plenty.
2. Fund raising. Obama raised cash and lots of it, but differently than Hillary. Hillary went to her “fat cats” and their bags of money, but they maxed out on their donations while the battle still raged on. Obama raised his money on-line from armies of small donors. Obama was able to go back to these people again and again for more into February. Obama has a ton of cash in the bank while Hillary had to loan herself money. Obama broke every fundraising record and is in good shape for the fall against McCain when it comes to the cash.
3. Media. Yes, the media (whether intentionally or not) favored Obama against Hillary. NBC, especially MSNBC, appears to be in the tank for Obama. Hillary got the full scrutiny that a front-runner should expect to get. The media was largely hands-off of Obama until after he became the “Messiah” of this race and people were fainting at his sight. A perfect example of this was in late October when the race started to shift for the first time away from Hillary. In a debate in October in Philadelphia, Tim Russert of NBC asked Hillary about where she stood with Gov. Spitzer's (New York) position to allow illegal aliens to have driver's licenses. She stumbled over the answer to the point where her credibility and her inevitability was questioned. She slowly descended from her 50-20 lead in the polls, eventually into a slight Obama lead, reflective of how the delegate race stands now. Obama was given hard questioning on an ABC debate in March and everyone whined about the hard treatment.
4. Iowa. The very first caucus. Obama absolutely had to win it; otherwise Hillary would have stampeded to the nomination. He had to win it to show that he was a credible candidate. After a year of warm-up, this was Opening Day of the real race. Obama wins Iowa and this placed him on an even footing with the inevitable Hillary.
5. Race. We can deny this was a factor; but it is relevant. Most black Democratic primary voters were originally for Hillary probably due to being unsure about Barack's viability and since Bill Clinton, according to author Toni Morrison, was the “first black president.” However, as soon as Obama won Iowa and lost very narrowly in New Hampshire (states with barely any black population), the black voters began to see Obama as a serious candidate and capable of winning the nomination. Beginning in South Carolina and continuing the rest of the primary season, Obama won at least 90% of the black vote in each state. In states with a large black population such as South Carolina, this was enough for Obama to win these states. Obama did not run as the black candidate, this is why he got more than enough of the white vote to win the nomination. Distinguish this from Jesse Jackson and Al Sharpton who were not viable candidates to win the nomination the years they ran.
6. No plan for Hillary after super Tuesday. Everybody thought the nomination would be over after Super Tuesday, February 5, especially Hillary. From Iowa until February 5, Super Tuesday, Obama and Hillary fought to a draw. Both won states and by February 5, the race was down to just the two of them. Hillary thought she would have the nomination locked by February 5 at the latest. She had no strategy or infrastructure for the states after. She was starting to run out of money and had to loan her campaign $5 million on February 6, more later. Obama was well-prepared for February contests. He rolled through them winning eleven straight. This is when he built his lead in pledged delegates and began to narrow the gap in superdelegates, eventually passing Hillary. Hillary has been playing catch up ever since. She won Ohio and Texas in March and Pennsylvania in April. But it was too late then. Obama had built the consensus that he was the front-runner and he could not be denied the nomination.

It is amazing to look back that Obama actually beat Hillary for the nomination. He is not a shoo-in against McCain, but in this change and Democratic year, he has to be the favorite. Underestimating him is a mistake; ask Hillary.